MOVIE REVIEWS | INTERVIEWS | YOUTUBE |  NEWS |  EDITORIALS | EVENTS | AUDIO | ESSAYS | ARCHIVES | CONTACT |
 PHOTOS | COMING SOON| EXAMINER.COM FILM ARTICLES ||HOME

                                                          
Monday, January 26, 2015

AWARDS SEASON 2015
Oscar Predictions: The 87th Annual Academy Awards


The Oscar awaits.  ©AMPAS
       
by Omar P.L. Moore/PopcornReel.com        FOLLOW                                            TWEET
Monday, January 26, 2015

The Academy Awards are less than a month away.  Most of the winners appear to be a fait accompli.  But you never know.  Here are my predictions, with quick analysis:


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - BIRDMAN
Alejandro G. Inarritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr & Armando Bo

It may not have been WGA-eligible, but the "Birdman" script jumped off the page like Howard Hawks's dialogue.  The collision of voices in Mr. Inarritu's film is the definition of the insanity that runs wild throughout it.  The Academy won't resist the script, especially since it's a take-off on the actors within the branch and the industry as a whole.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - THE IMITATION GAME
Graham Moore

The Academy tosses bouquets at the film's best chance.  Mr. Moore's tidy, neat and well-written script wins despite gaps and inaccuracies surrounding Alan Turing.  Sadly, the script also avoids a deeper look at Mr. Turing's personal life and steers around the edges.  That's safe comfort for the Academy's predominantly older, whiter male contingent in a weak year for adapted contenders.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG - "Glory", from SELMA
Common & John Legend

A lock.  Academy knows (though may not care) that it under-nominated "Selma", shunning the acclaimed film for Best Director and Actor consideration.  Through it all Ava DuVernay has accentuated the positive.  She sees the bigger picture: that "Selma" was made, seen and inevitably stands the test of time.  The Academy will achieve something of a small "make-good" February 22 when it announces Common and Mr. Legend as Oscar winners for a song for the ages.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE - THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Johann Johannsson

The sole win of the night for James Marsh's film.  Alexandre Desplat, with his two nominations in this category, will be cancelled out in a split vote, leaving Johann Johannsson's fluid, purposeful, light score with an Oscar.  Hans Zimmer's "Interstellar" is a wild card.  Gary Yershon's "Mr. Turner" likely exists without great support.  The Oscar is Mr. Johannsson's to lose.


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT - THE PHONE CALL
Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

A guess, simply because it's the easiest title in the category to announce.  Seriously.  It's that simple.  And simplistic.


BEST ANIMATED SHORT - FEAST
Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed

Another guess here.  Torill Kove previously won in 2007, and her work "Me And My Moulton" is her third nomination.  If Mr. Osborne and Ms. Reed aren't the winners, Ms. Kove's name will have been called.


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT - JOANNA
Aneta Kopacz

Another guess.  The rationale here without knowing more?  The title is the shortest and easiest to pronounce.  Hopefully the majority white male Academy genuflects to the gender of female for a change.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - CITIZENFOUR
Laura Poitras

Ms. Poitras's film will prevail.  The Academy will want to make a statement about and against government surveillance, especially in a year during which Hollywood studios have been hacked and celebrity members of the Academy -- Jennifer Lawrence among many -- have had their photos stolen.  Ed Snowden, in a fascinating documentary, is the conduit.  The Academy rewards, despite a solid "Virunga".


BEST SOUND EDITING - AMERICAN SNIPER
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman

One of the only Oscars on the night for Clint Eastwood's film, which is facing too much heat in the press despite its box office, to pull off an upset.  Mr. Murray and Mr. Asman come out on top, and unscathed.  Of the other choices, only "Birdman" seems viable.  Its editing in sound was good.


BEST SOUND MIXING - BIRDMAN
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga

An impressive mix helped "Birdman" stay lively and afloat.  The aural carnival abounded, and I think it will with Academy members.  "Whiplash" may have some appeal here but "Birdman" was one of the more impressive mixes of discrete sound of all the sound nominees for this year's Oscars.


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING - GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY
Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

This is the clear cut choice for Oscar.  Academy will confirm this one on the night.  A lock.  Simple as that.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS - INTERSTELLAR
Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher

The lone Oscar for Christopher Nolan's film, which didn't fare well with most.  The effects are the only reason to watch.  The Academy will get the film off its back with this Oscar.


BEST COSTUME DESIGN - THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Milena Canonero

Impeccable costumes are as much a character in Wes Anderson's brilliant film as the characters themselves.  Oscar can't resist. 


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE - THE TALE OF THE PRINCESS KAYUGA
Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

Since the stunning omission of "The Lego Movie" from the nominations earlier this month, all signs point to the small film from the on-its-very-last-legs-Studio Ghibli.  The Academy shoved "Lego", which I thought a year ago would be a sure-fire winner in 2015, to make way for the "Princess".  While "How To Train Your Dragon 2" has a shot, this film from Mr. Takahata and Mr. Nishimura will prevail.  A competitive and robust animation year after a couple of lackluster ones.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM - IDA
Poland

"Ida" is close to a shoo-in here, although "Leviathan" (Russia) and "Timbuktu" (Mauritania) are legitimate threats.  Ultimately the artistry and the subject of Poland in the 1960s will be too good for the older Academy membership to pass up.  Some of the members may have Polish ancestry, a factor that may further accentuate an inevitable and deserved winner on Oscar night.


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN - THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Adam Stockhausen

The surest of sure bets on Oscar night.  Even more of a certainty than Best Picture.


*BEST FILM EDITING - WHIPLASH
Tom Cross

In this revised pick, Tom Cross's work for "Whiplash" gave the film its fury, tension and suspense.  The film's editing is exacting to the point of discomfort.  The propulsive energy -- and the increasing doubts about "Boyhood" and its pacing -- seem to make what I thought was a sure thing last month in Sandra Adair as quiet background "noise".


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY - BIRDMAN
Emmanuel Lubezki

This is a three-way race.  Mr. Lubezki won just 12 months ago for "Gravity".  He was nominated two years before for "The Tree Of Life".  His "Birdman" cinematography is wondrous, though not as phenomenal as in those other two films.  Yet the photography in "Birdman" is crucial to its psychology and architecture.  While Robert Yeoman's sharper, pristine linings help make "Grand Budapest" pop, and the great shots in "Ida" by Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski merit an Oscar, it will be Mr. Lubezki's night.  The Academy loves him.  Poor Roger Deakins can't catch a break.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"

Patricia Arquette has swept the critics awards from start to finish, with the possible exception of three critics' bodies.  Other than that, Patricia Arquette, along with Adam Stockhausen, are the biggest automatics of Oscar night.  Guaranteed.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"

J.K. Simmons storms through "Whiplash" so emphatically.  Academy likes dark knights like this villain-type who chews scenery so thoroughly.  In another year Edward Norton may have had a look in for "Birdman", but this isn't another year.  Advantage Mr. Simmons.


BEST ACTRESS - Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"

Another appallingly weak year for lead actresses -- one even worse than 2013 -- will culminate in a career award for Julianne Moore.  Ms. Moore is great in "Still Alice", though it isn't her best work.  The fact is, Ms. Moore has paid her dues for years as an actor.  Great work including in "Safe", arguably her best.  She's been nominated at least three times.  She was also in "Maps To The Stars" in 2014, in which she reportedly was even better than in "Still Alice".  The Moore the merrier on February 22.


BEST ACTOR - Michael Keaton, "Birdman"

Michael Keaton wins for two reasons: he's a man playing an actor in transition and in mid-life crisis.  The older white male Academy won't frown on him.  It doesn't hurt that Mr. Keaton falls in their average Academy member's age range, either.  It's a plus.  Bradley Cooper will gain momentum, as will Eddie Redmayne.  Even so, Steve Carell, a long shot, and Mr. Cooper and Mr. Redmayne will have to wait at least another year.


*BEST DIRECTOR - Alejandro G. Inarritu, "Birdman"

In this revised pick, the Directors' Guild has chosen Alejandro G. Inarritu, and the DGA has only failed to predict the eventual Best Director eight or nine times.  Which means that Mr. Inarritu will become the second consecutive Mexican to win Best Director.  He will join Alfonso Cuaron ("Gravity") come Oscar Sunday.


BEST PICTURE - BIRDMAN
Alejandro G. Inarritu, John Lesher, Arnon Milchan, James W. Skotchdopole, producers

"Birdman" is a safe satire on Hollywood and actors and madness, which, in an industry like Hollywood, is a perfect fit.  The Academy is never shy about rewarding films about them or the industry at large, so long as they aren't spiteful or mean-spirited.  "Birdman" is neither.  The lone challenger will be "American Sniper" but the much-discussed film will be an also-ran on the night, barring a major upset.  The "Birdman" flies high.


Predicted Oscar Win Tally (films with at least two Oscars):

BIRDMAN - 6
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL - 2


COPYRIGHT 2015.  POPCORNREEL.COM.  ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.                 FOLLOW

MOVIE REVIEWS | INTERVIEWS | YOUTUBE |  NEWS |  EDITORIALS | EVENTS | AUDIO | ESSAYS | ARCHIVES | CONTACT | PHOTOS | COMING SOON| EXAMINER.COM FILM ARTICLES ||HOME