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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

AWARDS SEASON 2012
Here's Who Wins Oscar Next Month, And Why


Oscar nominee Jennifer Lawrence and Academy president Tom Sherak yesterday morning during the Oscar nominations announcement.  Todd Wawrychuk/AMPAS  
  
by Omar P.L. Moore/PopcornReel.com        FOLLOW                                            TWEET
Wednesday, January 25, 2012

So why wait?  Why wait until the week or weekend of the 84th Annual Academy Awards on February 26?  Why not predict now? 

After all, the wrapping has already come off the gifts.  You know who the nominees are, and what they look like.  The speculation and conjecture about the who, why and  should have is already a moot point.

Without any further fuss, here are my predicted winners, or rather, who I think the Academy will choose as the winners in next month's Oscars, with brief, detailed analysis of why:


BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

The nomination is the French director's first.  Included in this august group of directing nominees (Mssrs. Allen, Malick, Payne and Scorsese have all previously been nominated), Mr. Hazanavicius is already a winner.  He directed "The Artist" with confidence, flair and a playfulness that was irresistible and entertaining.  The Academy likes feel good films, and the joyous tone of this one, so meticulously executed in style, story and performance, will win many Oscar voters over.



BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, "The Help"

So often the Academy has enjoyed the noble, steadfast heroine or hero, the one who quietly goes about her business while everything around her is off-kilter.  This is exactly the scenario that Aibileen, played by Viola Davis, finds herself in in 1963 Mississippi.  Ms. Davis is good in the film, and even though her passive black maid character isn't my cup of tea, it will be the Academy's: disciplined, resolute and non-threatening.  Aibileen is a character of comfort to the Academy.  The nominees here are formidable (Meryl Streep, Glenn Close, Michelle Williams) and surprising (Rooney Mara), but if Ms. Streep also votes for her "Doubt" co-star Davis, the Oscar is about as safe as houses in Viola Davis's hands.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

The Academy loves larger-than-life movie characters, and Octavia Spencer played one in "The Help" as the heart of that film's entertainment, along with Sissy Spacek.  The film (and category) has two high-profile caricatured characters: one played by Ms. Spencer, the other by Jessica Chastain.  The Academy will send the message that black actresses, who have won just five Academy Awards in Oscar's 83-year history -- McDaniel, Goldberg, Berry, Hudson, Mo'Nique -- aren't an endangered species in the Oscar winners' circle.  After last year's invisibility black actresses will be brought back in the Oscar spotlight.  Janet McTeer, Bérénice Bejo, Melissa McCarthy and Ms. Chastain all do better work but Academy sentiment points at Ms. Spencer.



BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, "The Descendants"

A strong lead male category sees first time nominees, amazingly enough, in Gary Oldman for "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy", with 30 years of fine acting under his belt; in Jean Dujardin, France's comedic actor, for "The Artist", and in Demián Bichir for his  excellent work in "A Better Life".  Mr. Oldman and Mr. Bichir deserve the Oscar, but the well-loved George Clooney (also nominated for adapted screenplay for "Ides Of March") will prevail over Brad Pitt.  Mr. Clooney does the best work of his career using his movie star-as-actor dynamic to play himself as much as his real-estate lawyer character in "The Descendants".  He looks more like Cary Grant than Clark Gable, but Mr. Clooney's initials (if you reverse them) convey the mark of a star actor who could soon find himself in their class.  The Academy loves stars who use persona and embrace it in a character they play in a big way (see Jack Nicholson in "Terms Of Endearment", "As Good As It Gets"; both Oscar wins.)  Mr. Clooney has already netted a supporting actor Oscar ("Syriana", winning in 2006.)


Will "The Artist" be top dog on Oscar night?  Jean Dujardin and Bérénice Bejo (pictured above) star.  The Weinstein Company

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

I thought Albert Brooks would be a lock to win an Oscar in this category for his wonderful performance as a car-race gangster in "Drive", but what on earth did I know?  Mr. Brooks' absence is even more stunning than Michael Fassbender's omission in the Best Actor category for "Shame".  None of the other men in this category, from the neophyte nominee Jonah Hill ("Moneyball") to the veterans Mr. Plummer, Nick Nolte ("Warrior"), Kenneth Branagh ("My Week With Marilyn") and Max von Sydow ("Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close") are surprises here, but Mr. Brooks not being here is astonishing.  In "Beginners" Mr. Plummer does fine, but not his best work in only, amazingly, his second Oscar nomination (he was nominated in 2010 for "The Last Station".)  With Mr. Brooks a non-factor, Mr. Plummer should coast to the finish line.


BEST PICTURE
Hugo

The picture with the most toys (including a best picture nomination) usually wins, and since "Hugo" has eleven nominations, expect it to win the night's top prize.  "Hugo" has been virtually quiet this awards season but it is a more universal film than "The Artist", stretching across decades of movies into the present and back to the past (Georges Méliès) on a continuum.  "Hugo" ties the experiences of movies over a century together and gives its story an emotional investment and relevance that is sometimes moving.  It's also revealing that the Oscars show tagline this year is "there's a little bit of the movies in all of us."  This line represents exactly what the spirit of "Hugo" is and what that film represents.


Other select categories, and who I think the Academy will choose for Oscar in each:

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"The Descendants" by Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Midnight In Paris" by Woody Allen

BEST ART DIRECTION
"The Artist", Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Tree Of Life", Emmanuel Lubezki

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
"Rango", directed by Gore Verbinski

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"A Separation" (Iran), directed by Asghar Farhadi

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"Hugo", Sandy Powell

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"Hugo", Howard Shore

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Man Or Muppet" from "The Muppets", by Bret McKenzie

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
"Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2", Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson

BEST SOUND EDITING
"Hugo", Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty

BEST SOUND MIXING
"Transformers: Dark Of The Moon", Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin

BEST EDITING
"The Artist", Anne Sophie-Bion and Michel Hazanavicius

BEST MAKE UP
"Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 2", Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Undefeated", T.J. Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas


The 84th Annual Academy Awards take place on Sunday, February 26 at 8:30pm Eastern/5:30pm Pacific U.S. time at the Kodak Theatre at Hollywood And Highland in Los Angeles.

Previous Awards Season 2012: Oscar nominations report

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