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Tuesday, February 4, 2014
AWARDS SEASON 2014
Final Predictions For Next Month's Oscars
These statuettes await the winners on the night of Sunday, March 2.
AMPAS/Getty
by
Omar P.L. Moore/PopcornReel.com
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Tuesday,
February 4,
2014
A month from now we'll be looking back at a historic night for The Academy
Awards, which will celebrate "12
Years A Slave" and
"Gravity" in almost equal measure. Both films will take the
lion's share of Oscars at the 86th Annual Academy Awards.
Until then, there's always predictions for Hollywood's big night on Sunday,
March 2 at the Dolby Theatre. Here are my own, in 21 of the 24 categories:
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
John Ridley, "12 Years A Slave"
Mr. Ridley's screenplay based on Solomon Northup's memoir is scintillating to
hear spoken on the big screen. His main competitor is Terence Winter ("The
Wolf Of Wall Street"). Odds are The Academy goes with Mr.
Ridley over Mr. Winter. The Academy wants to make some more history.
The last time a black person won a screenplay Oscar was in 2010 (Geoffrey
Fletcher, adapted, for
"Precious".)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
David O. Russell & Eric Warren Singer, "American Hustle"
This will be the biggest personal prize of the night for Mr. Russell, whose
"American Hustle" had gained momentum last month but suddenly took a dent after
losing out at the PGA Awards. "American Hustle" will get resistance from
"Her" supporters, but ultimately The Academy respects Mr. Russell, nominating
him and his films in 2011, 2012 and 2014.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Grand Beauty
Paolo Sorrentino's colorful film will rise above the rest in a very competitive
field. Some of the best films ("The Past") aren't even on the shortlist,
but there's little doubt that "The Grand Beauty", which has enough razzle-dazzle
for all of its competitors, prevails on the night.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Feet From Stardom
The main competitors are "The Act Of Killing", a spellbinding, disturbing
experience, and "20 Feet From
Stardom", an appealing, entertaining film. The Academy has
probably seen the latter more than the former. They also aren't fans of
reenacted true stories, which "The Act Of Killing" is. "20 Feet From
Stardom" celebrates the American musical spirit, recognizing the key elements of
what has made artists great. Advantage Stardom.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Ordinary Love", U2 (from "Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom")
The Academy has likely deemed 2014 the year that U2 wins an Oscar. They
have been nominated before ("The Hands That Built America"). Heroes are
the theme of this year's Oscars, and what better time to honor a hero than now,
in Nelson Mandela, who passed away in December? U2 sang "Ordinary Love" in
the closing credits of the forgettable "Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom", an
ill-fitting song for such a poor film. The Academy will salute the late
Mr. Mandela, albeit with a shaky song.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"Her", William Butler and Owen Pallett
The Academy will go with a younger set of composers, as they did back in 2011
with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross in
"The Social Network", which some of this score
evokes. It's futuristic, cool, different. Although Alexandre
Desplat's "Philomena"
is more indicative of an older Academy member's customary choice, the Arcade
Fire score for "Her" represents a here and now for an Academy that wants to make
changes, at least incremental ones. It's "Her" on the night.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen
Hayao Miyazaki's "The Wind Rises" is good though not the animated master's best.
There's something, fresh, vibrant and unexpected about "Frozen". It
sparkles like a jewel, and it's enjoyable. The Academy has probably seen
it more than it has Mr. Miyazaki's film. "Frozen" is an overwhelming
shoo-in. A stone cold lock.
BEST FILM EDITING
Joe Walker, "12 Years A Slave"
A close call here between Mr. Walker and the duo of Alfonso Cuaron and Mark
Sanger for "Gravity". The first significant Oscar of the night, more so
than the first Oscar of the night (in the supporting acting category), will be a
big precursor for Best Picture. True, a film winning Best Editing hasn't
always won Best Picture, but that is rare. There are great editing moments
in both films, but Mr. Walker's cuts have a scene-to-scene consistency that is
flawless. Mr. Walker will be giving an acceptance speech.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Andruitha Lee and Robin Mathews, "Dallas Buyers Club"
The Academy loves cosmetic changes in big screen characters, and
makeup/hairstyling is the category where it's rewarded as much as in any other.
This year, the transformation of Jared Leto in "Dallas Buyers Club", as well as
the make-up of Matthew McConaughey in the same film, will be The Academy's pick.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Adam Stockhausen and Alice Baker, "12 Years A Slave"
This is a close call. Each film in the category has a strong sense of
time, place and feel. "Her" may yet pull out the win. "Gravity" is a
very impressively constructed film. The technical skill stands out even
more than the designs on screen, if you can possibly separate the two.
"The Great Gatsby" is masterful design. "American Hustle" may be slightly
weaker but its clothes and styles are spot on. The markers of "12 Years A
Slave" are integral to its atmosphere, lending a presence and largess to the
film that saunters above the rest. The design sets the biggest tone in "12
Years A Slave", and I think The Academy will agree.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki, "Gravity"
Nominated in 2012 for "The Tree
Of Life", Mr. Lubezki is the favorite here. With Sean Bobbitt
scandalously not nominated, the field is clear. The American Society Of
Cinematographers has already crowned the "Gravity" photographer with its award.
A stone cold lock on Oscar night.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk, Neil Corbould, "Gravity"
Hands down. Stonier than stone. Colder than cold. It's not
only a lock. It's a wrap.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow, "Lone Survivor"
The bone-crunching sounds you hear in
"Lone Survivor" are nerve-jangling, all the
more because of the trio that mixed them. The sounds are the heart of a
visceral film. "Gravity" is not likely to win both sound Oscars.
"Lone Survivor" pips "Gravity" to the post.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Glenn Freemantle, "Gravity"
Mr. Freemantle wins here, and comfortably. A stone cold lock.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Patricia Norris, "12 Years A Slave"
The 82-year-old costume designer will become the oldest designer to win an
Academy Award. In a tight race -- principally a three-horse race between
"American Hustle", "The Great Gatsby" and "12 Years A Slave" -- Ms. Norris takes
home the gold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years A Slave"
Some seemed jittery about Ms. Nyong'o's chances in this category, especially
after Jennifer Lawrence won at the Golden Globes last month. The tide
turned at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, a very reliable indicator of acting
Oscars. Momentum is on Ms. Nyong'o's side, and "12 Years A Slave" has
wider support from The Academy than "American Hustle" does. Advantage Ms.
Nyong'o. I'll call this a stone cold lock.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"
Little doubt here. Mr. Leto is the surest thing in the acting category on
Oscar night. He's won each of the significant film awards, and has made an
impression with Academy voters. Stone cold lock. Ice-cold.
BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "American Hustle"
The Academy has wanted to reward Amy Adams for a while now. This is her
fifth nomination and first in the lead actress category. ("Junebug",
"The Fighter",
"Doubt", "The Master"
are the support nominations.) Ms. Adams is loved in Oscar circles.
Cate Blanchett, with six Oscar nominations to her name, has by far the best
acting performance in "Blue
Jasmine" of her four competitors. Yet how often have we seen
The Academy pull a trick from up its sleeve and hand the Oscar to someone else?
(Most recently Ellyn Burstyn, Sissy Spacek and
Viola Davis all missed out.) The Woody
Allen re-allegations should never have anything to do with The Oscars, but we
all know better: The Academy isn't so insulated so as to be living in a bubble,
even as some of them know Mr. Allen. Advantage Adams.
BEST ACTOR
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"
Alright, alright, alright. It's Mr. McConaughey, as much for his work in
2012 as for this performance. The Academy loves weight gainers or losers
and fittingly Mr. McConaughey fits the bill in Jean-Marc Vallee's drama.
Chiwetel Ejiofor is the better performer but The Academy prefers theatricality
to nuance, which rules Mr. Ejiofor out. It's McConaughey all night, all
night, all night.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, "Gravity"
Mr. Cuaron is a stone cold lock here after winning the DGA Award last month.
He makes history on Oscar night as the first Mexican filmmaker to win in this
category. A stone cold lock. Book it and cook it.
BEST PICTURE
12 Years A Slave
The Academy makes a historic statement, exactly 75 years after "Gone With The
Wind", reflecting an evolution in its own thinking as well as a salute to a
throughly brilliant and towering motion picture. There's little doubt of
the gravitas of "12 Years A Slave", and as noted the film has huge support in
The Academy. Steve
McQueen will become the first black director to take home an Oscar,
and at that, Oscar's top prize. A stone cold lock.
The 86th Annual Academy Awards will be televised live on ABC at 8:30pm
Eastern/5:30pm Pacific US time, and in over 220 other countries live, on Sunday,
March 2.
Previous:
A split night for "12 Years A Slave" and "Gravity"
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